Card Counting: Do You Have What It Takes?
First the good news: the rules ensure that players enjoy the best odds of all against the house in blackjack, something like a 1:1 probability of winning each time. Secondly, keeping track of card values, "card counting", gives you an infinitesimal edge (1% to 1.5%) over the house. In the long run, this tiny edge can mean you will come out ahead by hundreds or even thousands of dollars.
Success at counting cards requires fortitude, a superb memory and mathematical skill. And it takes great determination just to review and make choices from over a dozen factors that help with card counting technique.
The most basic decision you need to make is what value system you will apply to the cards. There are six pointers here.
First, settle the question of employing balanced/zero-sum or unbalanced counts. Balanced counts are more accurate and easier to keep track of. Since all card values sum to zero, the running count is apt to be some low negative or positive number. In unbalanced counts, all card values are positive so the range of possible values can seem unwieldy. However, the easier counting systems all use unbalanced card counts.
The second decision involves running count (RC) versus true count (TC). RC is the simple sum of all the card values that have already been dealt. This is fairly easy to do, notably with balanced counting systems. A TC, on the other hand, factors in the number of cards already dealt by multiplying or dividing in one's head or by referring to a table. TC estimates the likelihood of your getting high cards better.
A third question is what to do about the Ace. Giving Aces a value equal to the Ten's, for instance, is more popular, does make more sense because getting a blackjack combination pays extra, and is generally more appropriate for the shoe-based games in casinos. On the other hand, there are counting systems that discount Aces or assign a value half that of the Ten cards.
Fourth, what counting level should one opt for? This refers to the maximum value used. The traditional "Hi-Lo" count was easy to use because cards bore values of just -1 or +1. This is called a Level One count. Experience suggests that Level 2 and 3 systems make for greater playing efficiency but demand more of the player in point of concentration.
Fifth is the question of whether to practice side counts or not. This usually involves keeping track of Aces separately from RC or TC. After all, Aces have a large impact on betting but are absolutely unimportant when one does not have a blackjack.
Having been oriented about these five factors, the sixth decision of the blackjack player concerns playing efficiency (PE) and betting correlation (BC). Do not fret, others have already done the job of rating the various card counting systems on PE and BC. The higher the PE, the more flexible a counting system is in accommodating your playing strategy. BC is the very rationale for all counting systems. The closer it is to 1.00, the better it predicts when you should bet big.
The rewards of card counting can be very satisfying. Aside from picking a counting system that has excellent betting correlation, it pays to be realistic about one's fortitude, memory breadth and calculation skill because just choosing card values involves five decision points.